While Manchester United ponder whether or not selling Danny Welbeck was a betrayal of their philosophy before salivating over Radamel Falcao, Arsenal are waiting to see whether or not Arsene Wenger’s deadline-day impulse buy will pay off.
When Olivier Giroud, the Gunners’ first-choice striker since his 2012 move from Montpellier, broke his tibia in August, Welbeck would not have been the obvious candidate to replace him. Where the Frenchman is a muscular target man, the England international is a rangy, quick forward who has spent most of his club career quite literally waiting in the wings.
Not any more. While Wenger acknowledges that Welbeck’s versatility was part of why he spent £16 million on him, the 23-year-old will primarily play through the middle – particularly during Giroud’s absence. So how will Arsenal’s approach be affected by the change of personnel up front?
The physical comparison is the clearest one – while Welbeck is not without strength, his French team-mate is a much more typical target man, far more likely to engage in physical battles with defences. He commits fouls at a rate of 1.35 per 90 minutes, compared to only 0.8 on the part of the former United man.
Part of this is due to his being less graceful in the tackle. Welbeck’s frequent use on the flanks has seen him having to track back and defend more often than most strikers so, while a tackling rate of 1.74 per 90 minutes compared to Giroud’s 0.84 should not be seen as an exact representation of how he plays at centre forward, a success rate of 84 per cent to his rival’s 77% indicates a definite proficiency.
It means that a team with Welbeck up front can expect to be more successful when pressing high up the pitch and trying to force errors – while his extra pace means that he can better take advantage of those errors, as well as spearheading counterattacks and picking up through-balls.
That avenue of attack used to be Arsenal’s specialty - and club legend Thierry Henry, who fired the Gunners to so much success in the early 2000s, is Welbeck’s boyhood idol – but it has not been seen so frequently since Giroud was signed. Indeed, in 2013-14 Wenger’s side only scored eight Premier League goals on the counterattack and just four came as a result of through-balls. More often, crosses would be put in for the Frenchman to pursue.
For better or for worse, a Welbeck-led Arsenal can be expected to be more fluid. The England international is happy to pull wide from the middle, making room into which others can run, as opposed to the focal point provided by Giroud. This should prove useful particularly for Alexis Sanchez, the Gunners’ chief goal threat advancing from attacking midfield, but it is part of what sometimes makes Welbeck a frustrating striker, yet to develop the selfish streak that defines so many of the greats.
While Giroud’s physical stature means that he often attempts more difficult passes with his head or chest, Welbeck is more often seen with the ball at his feet. That qualifies the differential between pass-completion stats of 87% for the Englishman and 67% for the Frenchman but cannot by itself deny that Welbeck adds an extra level of control in linking together parts of the attack.
That comfort with the ball at his feet also manifests in more impressive dribbling stats. While Giroud jostles with his marker, Welbeck is more likely to take them on, attempting 2.88 dribbles per 90 minutes to Giroud’s 2.17 with a much better completion rate of 49% compared to 27%.
Perhaps most promising for Arsenal fans, however, is the fact that - as evidenced by his double for England against Switzerland on Monday – Welbeck is a deadlier finisher than that for which he is sometimes given credit.
Not only is the former United youngster’s shooting accuracy last season of 52.8% a great deal more impressive than Giroud’s 43%, it was also higher than that of Daniel Sturridge (49.4%), the Liverpool star seen as his nation’s meanest predator.
That he has not scored more goals in the past is most simply explained by his constant waiting in line at Old Trafford – playing mostly on the flank, he attempted 36 shots to Sturridge’s 85 in 2013-14. While offering more of a team ethic than the Reds frontman’s constant desire to shoot, Welbeck should nonetheless get a much better chance to show off his finishing at the Emirates Stadium.
Sturridge’s liberation after leaving Chelsea for Liverpool should be the blueprint for Welbeck now. If successful, it would give Wenger two very different options from which to choose once Giroud returns to action.
Post a Comment